Economic Recession Will End in 2009: Most Economists are Wrong!

In a survey, most economists have predicted that economic recession in USA will end in 2009. National Association for Business Economics carried out the survey and 74% of economists thought that things would become better for the US economy in the next quarter. Well, I was going through most of the reports in major websites like Bloomberg, AP, CNN etc and I did not find anything to be excited about that the recession would end in the US in 2009. The economists perhaps feel that the stimulus package and increasing consumer confidence would help to make things OK again.

First of all, 5 months of the year is almost gone. The trend of job loss has not vanished. Rather job loss figures look as solid as it can be. Even in the survey, many economists felt that people will not get back their jobs right away. In fact, what I feel that many big companies are fighting to remain profitable. Major automakers are on the verge of bankruptcy. The banking sector is not in good shape either. President Obama may have offered a stimulus package but there is no substantial plan for creating new jobs.

As a hobby economist, I feel that creating new jobs will be the biggest challenge. Recession will only finish when this problem can be addressed. On the other hand, US economy is closely related to European and Asian countries. There is no good news for those countries. In the last few days, we have seen one after another Japanese company big annual loss. We have also seen very bad condition of economies of Germany and Britain. The same thing goes for China. In a global world, US economy cannot remain safe in an island.

Well, I am a hobby economist. Still, I understand that most economists failed to predict about the start of the recession. So, I will not be surprised if their prediction is wrong again.